Weekly Market Recap
Week ended July 10
Market-moving news
Moderate gains
The S&P 500 finished more than 1% higher and the NASDAQ added nearly 2% as the indexes recorded their second positive week in a row. Stocks have largely alternated between modest gains and losses since early June as investors assess AI-related spending, the Middle East conflict, and elevated oil prices.
Earnings build-up
Wall Street analysts modestly boosted their expectations as major U.S. banks prepared to open quarterly earnings season. As of Friday, analysts surveyed by FactSet were forecasting an average second-quarter earnings growth rate of 23.6% for companies in the S&P 500, up from a 23.3% forecast a week earlier. Either outcome would mark the second consecutive quarter of growth exceeding 20%.
Elevated yields
Prices of U.S. government bonds fell for the second week in a row, sending yields to their highest levels since mid-May amid persistent concerns about inflation and interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.56%, up from 4.37% a couple of weeks earlier. The 30-year Treasury ended at 5.06%, up from 4.87% two weeks earlier.
Dow record
The Dow on Monday closed at 53,055.9, pushing the previous week’s record level higher. But the 30-stock index couldn’t maintain positive momentum, as it fell on Tuesday and Wednesday and finished 0.5% lower for the week.The S&P 500 finished a half percentage point below the record that it set on June 2; the NASDAQ was more than 3% below the record it set on the same date.
Oil reverses course
Oil prices jumped on Tuesday and Wednesday as an escalation in the Middle East conflict reinforced the fragility of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. The price of U.S. crude briefly climbed to about $76 per barrel on Wednesday before pulling back to around $71 by Friday afternoon.
Volatility eases
An index that tracks investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility fell for the second week in a row, slipping to its lowest level in more than six months. The Cboe Volatility Index finished the week at 15.0, down from a recent high of 22.2 reached on June 10.
Small caps lag
A U.S. small-cap index lagged its large-cap peer by a big margin for the week, eroding small caps’ year-to-date outperformance. The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6% for the week while its large-cap counterpart ended 1.0% higher.
Fed chair, CPI ahead
The new week’s calendar will be packed, as recently installed U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to testify before House and Senate panels on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, and present a monetary policy update. In addition, a U.S. Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Tuesday will provide a monthly update on inflation.
The week ahead: July 13-17
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Investment returns
Equities
U.S. equity size and style total returns as of 7/10/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | Large | |
| -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | Medium | |
| -0.6 | -0.6 | -0.6 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
YTD
| 18.3 | 11.2 | 5.1 | Large | |
| 18.2 | 14.9 | 4.4 | Medium | |
| 22.3 | 20.7 | 19.3 | Small | |
| Value | Core | Growth | ||
Index/market total returns as of 7/10/26 (%)
| Close | 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 52,637.0 | -0.5 | 10.5 |
| NASDAQ Composite Index | 26,281.6 | 1.7 | 13.4 |
| S&P 500 Index | 7,575.4 | 1.3 | 11.4 |
| MSCI EAFE Index | 3,125.4 | -1.4 | 10.2 |
| Cboe Volatility Index | 15.0 | -7.4 | 0.0 |
International/developed (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EAFE | -1.4 | 10.2 |
| Europe | -1.9 | 8.1 |
| France | -2.2 | 2.7 |
| Germany | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| Italy | -0.6 | 13.6 |
| Japan | -1.0 | 17.1 |
| Spain | -1.9 | 11.9 |
| Switzerland | -2.0 | 8.3 |
| U.K. | -1.2 | 7.5 |
Emerging markets (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM | -1.7 | 21.9 |
| Brazil | 3.0 | 14.4 |
| China | 3.1 | -11.0 |
| India | 0.1 | -8.9 |
| Indonesia | 1.2 | -37.4 |
| Korea | -6.4 | 96.3 |
| Mexico | -0.8 | 10.4 |
| Russia | #N/A | #N/A |
| Taiwan | -3.5 | 59.0 |
S&P 500 sectors (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1.3 | 11.4 |
| Communication services | 2.4 | 5.0 |
| Consumer discretionary | 0.4 | -0.4 |
| Consumer staples | -1.2 | 8.9 |
| Energy | 3.2 | 23.9 |
| Financials | 0.1 | 2.6 |
| Healthcare | -1.8 | 4.9 |
| Industrials | -1.1 | 18.0 |
| Information tech | 3.4 | 19.8 |
| Materials | -2.2 | 12.2 |
| Real estate | -0.3 | 16.0 |
| Utilities | -0.8 | 7.8 |
Fixed income, currencies, and commodities
U.S. fixed-income style total returns as of 7/10/26 (%)
1 week
| 0.0 | -0.2 | -1.1 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.3 | Medium | |
| 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.7 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
YTD
| 1.3 | 0.0 | -1.3 | High | Credit quality |
| 0.7 | 0.3 | -0.2 | Medium | |
| 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.8 | Low | |
| Limited | Moderate | Extensive | ||
| Interest-rate sensitivity | ||||
U.S. Treasury bond yields as of 7/10/26 (%)
| END OF WEEK | PRIOR YEAR END | YTD CHANGE (BPS) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Yr | 4.21 | 3.48 | 73 |
| 10 Yr | 4.56 | 4.16 | 40 |
| 30 Yr | 5.06 | 4.84 | 22 |
| 2-10 spread | 36 | 68 | -32 |
| 10-30 spread | 50 | 68 | -18 |
U.S. bond sector total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate | -0.4 | 0.0 |
| Bank loans | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Convertible | 0.5 | 19.1 |
| Corporate | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| High yield | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| MBS | -0.5 | 0.4 |
| Municipal | -0.3 | 1.9 |
| Preferreds | -0.1 | -0.9 |
| TIPS | -0.1 | 0.9 |
| Treasury | -0.4 | -0.2 |
Global bond total returns (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM Local | -0.2 | 3.8 |
| EMD USD | -0.1 | 3.0 |
| Global Agg | -0.4 | -0.7 |
| Global Agg Ex-U.S. | -0.4 | -1.1 |
| Multiverse | -0.4 | -0.5 |
Commodities (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| BBG Com Ind | 3.1 | 17.9 |
| Oil (WTI) | 4.0 | 49.9 |
| Gold | -0.2 | -5.5 |
Currencies (USD) (%)
| 1 week | YTD | |
|---|---|---|
| EM FX | #N/A | #N/A |
| AUD | 0.1 | 4.2 |
| CAD | 0.3 | -3.1 |
| CHF | -0.6 | -1.9 |
| EUR | -0.2 | -2.7 |
| GBP | 0.4 | -0.3 |
| JPY | -0.3 | -3.1 |
GDP
Jobs
Inflation
Ex-U.S.
Regions/countries
| GDP Growth (%) annualized | Inflation Rate (%) CPI | Unemployment Rate (%) | 10-Year Government Bond (%) | Sovereign Credit Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eurozone | 0.3 | 2.8 | 6.2 | _ | _ |
| China | 5.0 | 1.0 | 5.1 | 1.73 | A+ |
| Germany | 0.4 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 3.03 | AAA |
| Japan | 0.6 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.76 | A+ |
| U.K. | 0.9 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.88 | AA |
Fund industry overview
Total net flows: open-end funds and ETFs as of 5/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Equity | -1.0 | -48.2 | 19,943.0 |
| Sector Equity | 19.2 | 116.5 | 2,069.6 |
| Allocation | -4.6 | -55.6 | 1,635.7 |
| International Equity | -14.4 | 144.5 | 6,057.4 |
| Alternative | 6.7 | 25.5 | 150.0 |
| Commodities | -0.3 | 38.0 | 391.2 |
| Taxable Bond | 98.7 | 755.9 | 6,889.1 |
| Municipal Bond | 14.9 | 100.8 | 1,064.6 |
| Total all long-term funds | 118.3 | 1,085.3 | 38,955.8 |
Leading Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intermediate Core Bond | 25.2 | 180.6 | 1,684.5 |
| Technology | 19.9 | 61.4 | 859.4 |
| Large Blend | 13.8 | 204.2 | 10,620.4 |
| Ultrashort Bond | 13.5 | 96.5 | 532.4 |
| Intermediate Core-Plus Bond | 12.6 | 71.5 | 947.5 |
Lagging Morningstar fund categories by monthly net flows as of 5/31/26 ($B)
| MONTH | 12 Month | ASSETS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trading--Leveraged Equity | -5.3 | -52.8 | 191.6 |
| Foreign Large Growth | -4.5 | -38.5 | 536.5 |
| Mid-Cap Growth | -4.2 | -44.4 | 357.3 |
| Moderate Allocation | -3.9 | -42.7 | 879.9 |
| Large Growth | -3.6 | -90.7 | 3,955.1 |
Important disclosures
Important disclosures
Unless otherwise noted, all data is from FactSet.
The data provided is for informational purposes only and is not an endorsement of any security, mutual fund, sector, or index. This does not illustrate the performance of any John Hancock fund. The information contained here is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index comprising 30 widely traded blue chip U.S. common stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value-weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap stocks in emerging markets. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) shows the market’s expectation of 30-day volatility and is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 Index options. Weekly and year-to-date figures for the VIX show percentage changes, not investment returns. The Russell 1000 Growth Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. The Russell 1000 Value Index tracks the performance of large-cap companies in the United States with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Total returns are calculated gross of foreign withholding tax on dividends.
The Treasury yield curve is derived from available U.S. Treasury securities trading in the market and is provided directly by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The spread measures the difference in yield between two government securities. A normal (positive) yield curve occurs when longer-term rates are higher than shorter-term rates. The opposite holds true for an inverted yield curve. Year-to-date changes in U.S. Treasury bond yields are shown in basis points (BPS). One hundred basis points equals one percent.
Oil prices are represented by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil.
The G20 countries comprise a mix of the world’s largest advanced and emerging economies, representing about two-thirds of the world’s population, 85% of global gross domestic product, and over 75% of global trade.
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